Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-18 2.619697 2.797962 2.988546 3.208552 3.456912 3.730268 4.056222
2025-05-25 2.342355 2.579871 2.847610 3.175455 3.571342 4.041153 4.652362
2025-06-01 2.164525 2.431787 2.743731 3.141402 3.645235 4.277849 5.159889
2025-06-08 2.048277 2.337658 2.684995 3.142766 3.747016 4.544675 5.731110
2025-06-15 1.970651 2.280149 2.660915 3.178073 3.887266 4.869803 6.430062
2025-06-22 1.868490 2.183053 2.576938 3.123771 3.895327 5.004776 6.861742
2025-06-29 1.777598 2.093654 2.495279 3.063316 3.884758 5.105518 7.250031
2025-07-06 1.691463 2.005134 2.408498 2.987735 3.842690 5.149352 7.544351
2025-07-13 1.658421 1.983517 2.408509 3.031949 3.979413 5.488004 8.437464
2025-07-20 1.632540 1.969373 2.416800 3.087101 4.136196 5.879153 9.534992
2025-07-27 1.609886 1.957905 2.427305 3.145020 4.301547 6.308249 10.847959
2025-08-03 1.566216 1.915498 2.391616 3.130107 4.345154 6.521642 11.740541
2025-08-10 1.522511 1.872029 2.353325 3.110277 4.381451 6.732564 12.724950
2025-08-17 1.478232 1.826016 2.309168 3.078349 4.393802 6.898674 13.663352
2025-08-24 1.437006 1.782620 2.266663 3.046002 4.401784 7.056350 14.650959
2025-08-31 1.407887 1.755152 2.246147 3.047298 4.469855 7.351816 16.230619
2025-09-07 1.389251 1.741776 2.245697 3.080830 4.600120 7.808397 18.684107
2025-09-14 1.349757 1.696954 2.195932 3.029252 4.563754 7.873652 19.687335
2025-09-21 1.310935 1.651959 2.144272 2.971794 4.511367 7.893303 20.530330
2025-09-28 1.270455 1.603477 2.085715 2.899905 4.425472 7.819564 20.926349
2025-10-05 1.260000 1.598507 2.093650 2.941966 4.569617 8.351187 24.786776
2025-10-12 1.252427 1.597392 2.107282 2.994404 4.740152 8.994491 30.327061
2025-10-19 1.245627 1.597092 2.122002 3.049439 4.922280 9.722355 38.215395